Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-08-24 4.251723 4.993915 5.815234 6.789817 7.912955 9.164882 10.664260
2025-08-31 3.001523 3.965231 5.148620 6.700824 8.674444 11.090608 14.262102
2025-09-07 2.367044 3.450266 4.900188 6.964117 9.804193 13.549001 18.829420
2025-09-14 1.874360 2.977193 4.567786 6.996031 10.567928 15.578395 23.073471
2025-09-21 1.523494 2.612682 4.290952 7.014977 11.260331 17.540002 27.417270
2025-09-28 1.261641 2.320507 4.052839 7.023704 11.897903 19.452889 31.869387
2025-10-05 1.170176 2.285250 4.204995 7.653766 13.560627 23.078618 39.298001
2025-10-12 1.033120 2.139444 4.140972 7.901488 14.613045 25.834443 45.622610
2025-10-19 0.919392 2.012370 4.084034 8.142436 15.667092 28.682536 52.364655
2025-10-26 0.799276 1.847711 3.927838 8.172141 16.337134 30.929008 58.287225
2025-11-02 0.670192 1.637657 3.647713 7.919884 16.445927 32.183632 62.574123
2025-11-09 0.550605 1.422794 3.320592 7.521383 16.214977 32.779988 65.705133
2025-11-16 0.470944 1.285193 3.138164 7.403515 16.543080 34.492804 71.160144
2025-11-23 0.406570 1.170794 2.987997 7.333481 16.963214 36.434052 77.264815
2025-11-30 0.374642 1.131591 3.002665 7.629149 18.186948 40.080600 87.044477
2025-12-07 0.331860 1.053720 2.911576 7.667240 18.852797 42.656759 94.913685
2025-12-14 0.294099 0.980937 2.819989 7.689041 19.481585 45.211919 102.967602
2025-12-21 0.260867 0.913361 2.729567 7.698955 20.081252 47.757855 111.225321
2025-12-28 0.259118 0.941472 2.897592 8.384582 22.351949 54.140930 128.213267
2026-01-04 0.240715 0.912648 2.904955 8.654047 23.647769 58.477158 141.109368
2026-01-11 0.223716 0.884468 2.909370 8.916057 24.954390 62.953362 154.683989
2026-01-18 0.201228 0.831954 2.833871 8.948359 25.684017 66.165359 165.679584
2026-01-25 0.172968 0.751287 2.658903 8.674080 25.586969 67.424595 172.307488